Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09808854bd76576650f43fa5c3f5f81a6da57ed5ddcc502a661c065bd34874bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 0c | 14,650$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +344.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 11,096$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.72 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 0c | 8,619$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 7,505$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 7,450$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.54 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 6,966$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.22 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,296$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 2,749$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,737$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 3c | 2,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,156$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,494$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 7c | 1,377$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 12c | 1,367$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…f676backed Yes | 4c | 1,092$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 6c | 973.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 827.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 13c | 738.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 669.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 17c | 644.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 635.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 624.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 18c | 583.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 3c | 505$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 22c | 499.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 5c | 367.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 7c | 320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 9c | 303.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 17c | 302.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 17c | 299.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…2befbacked Yes | 20c | 297.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 296.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 7c | 287.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 284.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 20c | 278.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…7868backed Yes | 20c | 275.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +177.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 239.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 22c | 228.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 8c | 219.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 5c | 200.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 12c | 198.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 18c | 181$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 21c | 180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…a696backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…55aabacked Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…37dfbacked Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…721dbacked Yes | 19c | 138.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 13c | 110.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 110.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…a236backed Yes | 19c | 106.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…8a12backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…8367backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…f2d8backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 90.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccb…1bd2backed Yes | 17c | 89.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8a20backed Yes | 22c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…f998backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…a259backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5401…50a1backed Yes | 20c | 54.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…2db1backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.