TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards50c26,646$13,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,383.431,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9723…77d8backed Nuggets47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,599.981764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets50c19,856$9,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,953.532,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets49c17,584$8,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,949.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…81aabacked Wizards53c14,629$7,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,753.552040%8 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets47c5,206$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Wizards50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Wizards52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9745348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wizards50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.851,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets11c3,378$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.532,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4592…49b6backed Wizards54c2,313$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.021442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b9…12e4backed Nuggets46c2,313$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.021947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Wizards53c2,191$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16124051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e6…5266backed Nuggets47c2,068$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.041650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9f…b134backed Wizards53c2,068$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.042030%6 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards50c1,975$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.043,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets44c1,867$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards46c1,821$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.534,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Wizards55c1,810$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Wizards51c1,633$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.8364651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Wizards53c1,494$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.8258347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Nuggets48c1,298$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.9226949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets50c1,243$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.062,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Wizards52c1,242$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.9419560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Wizards52c1,233$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.9692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Nuggets54c1,040$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.151,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3006…f21dbacked Nuggets45c999$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7473…08c3backed Nuggets46c966$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets48c900$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4681,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards52c844$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.881,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Wizards53c811.32$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43021852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards51c784.73$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.215,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Nuggets58c690.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.816943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wizards53c609.27$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.912,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Nuggets48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26015336.6%56 W · 97 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3253,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nuggets52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7759140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Wizards66c395.97$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked Wizards52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Wizards53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9844…0a11backed Wizards54c369$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4a…3499backed Wizards54c366$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Wizards52c365.38$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19068542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Wizards52c365.38$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4891…6275backed Wizards55c360$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Nuggets54c344$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.061,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Nuggets6c337.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.4635326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x754d…5554backed Wizards55c331$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Wizards53c316.42$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.751146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0175…bfcebacked Wizards55c308$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Wizards53c291.79$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6515348.4%74 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93d…f36dbacked Nuggets48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302475%18 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+44.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4acf…1ad1backed Wizards54c231$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Wizards53c226.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Nuggets48c226$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5232346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Wizards53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10611955.5%66 W · 53 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3397…f5abbacked Wizards53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064055%22 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1307…608cbacked Wizards51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Wizards52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.478652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e88…7c99backed Wizards53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Wizards53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Wizards53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015649.4%77 W · 79 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Nuggets47c166$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7511443%49 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Nuggets48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.211256.3%63 W · 49 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5525…902cbacked Nuggets48c156.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Wizards20c142.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3726839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Nuggets40c141.6$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0424846.8%116 W · 132 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Wizards51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011047.3%52 W · 58 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Wizards50c111.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.752,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards52c100.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.494,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wizards45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4580744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Nuggets50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5043246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed Wizards52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked Wizards52c95.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8511150.5%56 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Nuggets47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.117040%28 W · 42 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards52c83.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.673,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc535…6047backed Wizards65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013834.1%47 W · 91 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f32…483dbacked Wizards50c71.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.867643.4%33 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nuggets53c63.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.173,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Nuggets48c61.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2211849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards46c60.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.831,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Wizards52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211650.9%59 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Wizards53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.788845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Nuggets50c58.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x381d…818cbacked Wizards47c56.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick55cpaid-61.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wizards53c55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.152,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Nuggets50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2538252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Nuggets54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2330840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Nuggets47c49.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4117750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards51c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.422,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.671,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Wizards48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012855.5%71 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets48c39.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.573,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Wizards52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Wizards53c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1471245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Wizards53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027359%161 W · 112 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets48c32.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.722,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaa…05e1backed Nuggets47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.917554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.