TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$354,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Nuggets51c100,000$51,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,999.9220055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8a…e842backed Nuggets52c50,023$26,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,011.142568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Wizards49c42,062$20,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,610.381,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Wizards49c40,816$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00010252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards48c31,478$15,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,110.122,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Wizards47c30,922$14,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,428.7143148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…81aabacked Wizards49c20,403$9,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,997.42040%8 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9723…77d8backed Nuggets51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Nuggets51c15,410$7,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,551.0938253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards48c15,014$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.773,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards48c14,347$6,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Wizards49c12,245$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets48c12,093$5,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,241.544,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Nuggets52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Wizards51c9,912$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,049.6710947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.2676746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Wizards46c9,079$4,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,176.4140446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets53c9,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2301,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Nuggets53c7,500$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets54c7,217$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.118,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Wizards47c6,768$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.9992753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Nuggets53c6,400$3,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wizards49c6,213$3,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.592,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards47c5,341$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.621,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards47c5,202$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.784,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards48c4,668$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Nuggets52c4,535$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.9625753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Wizards49c4,490$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets54c4,027$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.522,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad3…a392backed Wizards49c3,678$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033c…1bcabacked Nuggets50c3,091$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa966…bd11backed Nuggets50c3,066$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5333100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41fa…def7backed Wizards50c3,032$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…39d3backed Wizards50c2,791$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…ad01backed Wizards50c2,776$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e25…944dbacked Wizards50c2,665$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6890…adcabacked Nuggets50c2,658$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb6…f864backed Nuggets50c2,588$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e7f…d173backed Nuggets50c2,575$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa286…ec1cbacked Nuggets50c2,574$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c4…3d16backed Nuggets50c2,553$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6a…b22bbacked Nuggets50c2,534$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d8…45debacked Nuggets50c2,534$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd46…01a6backed Wizards50c2,515$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe213…cccfbacked Nuggets50c2,456$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd3…ba0fbacked Wizards50c2,307$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x966c…b835backed Wizards50c2,306$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b3…a9b6backed Nuggets50c2,294$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Wizards49c2,188$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07224450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards47c2,143$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.535,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Wizards47c2,133$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.42,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd32…4a85backed Wizards50c2,089$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac43…296ebacked Wizards50c2,073$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0abc…34bcbacked Wizards50c2,063$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5066…5eabbacked Wizards50c2,052$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9399…3862backed Wizards50c2,044$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac13…f415backed Wizards50c2,041$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…2e54backed Wizards50c2,036$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Nuggets51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Wizards48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9618747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Wizards48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.8432051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4324…2f35backed Wizards50c1,925$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Nuggets53c1,889$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.6148448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…3195backed Nuggets50c1,888$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+57.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.791,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe65d…cd83backed Nuggets50c1,799$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e2…90d8backed Wizards50c1,778$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3766…a0e4backed Wizards54c1,544$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.043759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8896…81bdbacked Wizards50c1,531$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ee…6e3dbacked Nuggets50c1,508$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Wizards49c1,407$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.2642648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf072…da7ebacked Nuggets50c1,384$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Nuggets51c1,322$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.6987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b8d…854cbacked Nuggets53c1,304$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.563354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Wizards47c1,298$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61032150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.351753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf77e…eca5backed Nuggets50c1,268$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f53…a5bebacked Nuggets50c1,259$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Nuggets54c1,019$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.5212051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Nuggets53c951.46$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.678961.8%55 W · 34 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Nuggets51c900.99$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.8626839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Wizards49c884.55$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4323850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f4…2949backed Nuggets50c866$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb92…d369backed Nuggets50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Wizards49c639$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.1134654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Wizards49c630$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.719350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Wizards48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Wizards49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Wizards49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29449142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d3…7034backed Nuggets53c528.3$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.32161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Wizards48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Nuggets52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7718852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Wizards48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Nuggets54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18456348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Nuggets53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3642845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x902e…5f41backed Nuggets54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.379853.1%52 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Wizards51c323.88$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1851146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Nuggets53c320$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.420651%105 W · 101 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7309…1bf8backed Wizards50c319$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.