NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056bd9002a7c35a5b5036f25c7807682214174dc4574ab77c7a0f8bf00b3f58c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 5,389$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.29 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 63c | 3,361$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.57 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 2,844$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Under | 63c | 976.85$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 80c | 935$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 40c | 788.87$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.84 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 47c | 787.45$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.1 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 531.78$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.67 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 37c | 318.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 43c | 235.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Under | 64c | 144.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 36c | 109.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 53c | 104.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…586cbacked Under | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 470 | 43.8%206 W · 264 L | -22.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…a6babacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 43c | 58.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 60c | 50.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 54c | 40.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -10.0wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Under | 80c | 39.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 43c | 37.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…bbaebacked Under | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…4954backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…a0d7backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Under | 57c | 32.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…59adbacked Under | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0325…ddc4backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Under | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WizardsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.