NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e60faf3ae2c93e6b4d54d21dd7855a7230303e9ca87eadcf6394bc85b1beb13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 60c | 7,706$4,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.63 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 49c | 6,767$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.8 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 4,149$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.96 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 53c | 3,800$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 3,586$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 2,384$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 2,265$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.11 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 1,801$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Under | 51c | 1,382$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 1,116$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.24 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 32c | 1,005$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.31 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Over | 48c | 984.26$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.36 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 980$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Under | 61c | 977.91$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.91 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 50c | 763.19$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 166 | 42.2%70 W · 96 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 42c | 671.32$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.61 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 51c | 526.55$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.01 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 52c | 526.54$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.74 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 41c | 420$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 50c | 374$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 52c | 316$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 299.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 15c | 220.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 47c | 204$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 40c | 101.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 17c | 65.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 43c | 60.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -10.0wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…df8fbacked Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Under | 54c | 31.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WizardsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.