NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519994b7cbce956a0997e0609c97992e15195c49280a94624e370120aa3ef909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 48c | 16,391$7,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,442.69 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 11,586$5,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,967.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 9,429$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 2,242$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.65 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 1,358$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.36 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 53c | 1,277$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 1,013$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.71 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 4c | 810$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 47c | 566.6$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.3 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 6c | 510$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 54c | 444.44$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 53c | 352.38$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 47c | 202.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 52c | 76.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…c9cbbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ad…1ab8backed Over | 53c | 51.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…bc0dbacked Over | 53c | 35.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 31.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 70c | 30.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WizardsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.