NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13bc41bee3834c03c0d3899d8d2bf8fd07dc190e4845483f0ff5ea59e9d79f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 18,837$8,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,874.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 54c | 14,838$7,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,888.72 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 48c | 8,548$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,103.11 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 7,423$3,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,563.2 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 52c | 6,988$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,354.46 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 5,768$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.69 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 52c | 5,727$2,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.01 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 2,815$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 52c | 2,058$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.69 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 80c | 2,035$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.35 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 1,894$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.15 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.11 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 429$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 365$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66f…18efbacked Over | 46c | 138.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 47c | 107.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 87.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Over | 18c | 83.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 82.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…dee4backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 45c | 33.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 54c | 27.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 48c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Under | 53c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WizardsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.