TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ec3…823bbacked Yes5c9,480$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.49520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-63.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0b…14f5backed Yes0c5,090$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes14c3,956$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ed…437dbacked Yes5c3,598$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-79.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce94…5d59backed Yes2c2,250$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes9c1,968$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes18c1,454$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.599115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6aa…1c04backed Yes1c1,406$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b26…2c12backed Yes5c1,270$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,205$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.821432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed Yes65c1,187$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No75c1,175$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.096443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes14c899.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdd66…2ec1backed Yes2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes4c736.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5317122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a9…8000backed Yes3c716.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Yes3c699.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c698.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.85327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Yes35c611.88$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c605.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed Yes6c599.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b86…cc97backed Yes29c519.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes74c500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.61838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-95.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes32c499.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes7c477.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.116028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes5c460$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes30c445.37$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.167733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No56c436.57$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.811844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc49…0daabacked Yes4c429.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes3c428.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc83…4edfbacked Yes24c418.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b6…c03cbacked Yes26c415.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6499…e595backed Yes22c399.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes14c372.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.584231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ad…33fabacked Yes32c370.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes33c363.43$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.931020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-68.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c356.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3126318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes9c347.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.811414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes11c347.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.911414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes22c344.74$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.841154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac95…df88backed Yes27c340.4$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…5e40backed Yes15c328.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes62c322.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.361520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes69c307.24$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.042416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes33c303.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+332.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes13c298.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes12c296.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4220026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8327…66dfbacked Yes28c289.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes26c288.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.281050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc723…7778backed Yes35c266.25$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c6…42a6backed Yes11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes15c225.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c210.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83520%0 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes50c210.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.062330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed Yes10c207.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27dc…0102backed Yes20c200.39$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No79c193.18$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes6c183.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.543756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed Yes78c182.06$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…4c7abacked Yes25c167.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No72c165.39$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.311560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes17c163.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…cbf9backed Yes7c162.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes63c161.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3316…bbaebacked Yes13c157.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7e…069abacked Yes26c154.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x603e…43febacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes33c144.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4821426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c134.39$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b56…539dbacked Yes30c131.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe97backed Yes66c127.56$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c124$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.671250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No69c123.65$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.337241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes9c119.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes10c110.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+81.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes54c109.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick13cpaid+249.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7fd5…a75abacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1702…fe81backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d1…24ffbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63a…6fc0backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b97…7d38backed Yes30c98.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes16c97.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ead…5977backed Yes33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed No67c89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2964…9d6abacked Yes21c82.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes25c81.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd097…4432backed Yes29c78.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…afd6backed Yes34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca4d…44eabacked Yes17c70.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ff…7c3cbacked Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa44…7422backed Yes30c67.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.