TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c3f…75cfbacked FURIA Esports52c37,057$19,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,796.713651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed FURIA Esports56c36,090$20,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,965.5254851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Sentinels45c29,004$13,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,133.0890%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Sentinels52c26,167$13,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,633.0978162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Sentinels43c14,604$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,305.8829255.8%163 W · 129 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Sentinels44c12,500$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.865358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Sentinels44c10,326$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,550.1713050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed FURIA Esports55c7,731$4,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450.3223151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sentinels37c7,221$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.7446526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Sentinels43c6,641$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8873650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels47c6,479$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,03052455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA Esports54c6,309$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,896.9168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Sentinels44c5,093$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.0915850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FURIA Esports62c4,271$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.1832462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA Esports55c3,617$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.5853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked FURIA Esports57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.776863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FURIA Esports54c3,373$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.1868949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Sentinels46c3,316$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.8378344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed FURIA Esports62c3,124$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Sentinels45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35025046.4%116 W · 134 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed FURIA Esports56c2,920$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA Esports57c2,769$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.4365559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Sentinels34c2,637$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed FURIA Esports55c2,545$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.459744.3%43 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Sentinels46c2,310$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06015442.2%65 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Sentinels46c2,296$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.6618457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Sentinels47c2,293$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.3742540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FURIA Esports62c2,286$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.0656557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Sentinels43c2,272$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.5330835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed FURIA Esports53c2,250$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.972733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Sentinels45c2,061$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.226038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed Sentinels45c1,771$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Sentinels44c1,723$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.9926932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA Esports64c1,700$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.5613759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Sentinels44c1,512$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.1511255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd3…bd26backed FURIA Esports53c1,486$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.531861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+69.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed FURIA Esports54c1,475$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.3325555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed FURIA Esports75c1,463$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.136672.7%48 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Sentinels42c1,436$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.7994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Sentinels48c1,420$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.892748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked FURIA Esports55c1,293$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.664040%16 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44d3…e454backed FURIA Esports55c1,287$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.275263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Sentinels37c1,224$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.553455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FURIA Esports57c1,221$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.0515343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sentinels44c1,200$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52913642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f6…615bbacked FURIA Esports64c1,181$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed FURIA Esports56c1,180$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.25246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sentinels34c1,147$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.6289344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Sentinels49c1,102$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.3599945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf2…e270backed Sentinels47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed FURIA Esports40c1,052$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FURIA Esports57c1,051$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.0141537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Sentinels37c1,022$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.693046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed FURIA Esports50c1,010$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.3728151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FURIA Esports55c1,000$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA Esports76c993.41$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Sentinels44c985.02$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4125756%144 W · 113 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed FURIA Esports43c930$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.17934.2%27 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Sentinels51c924.92$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb74f…030abacked FURIA Esports55c919$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick61cpaid-51.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed Sentinels40c908.43$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.851163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Sentinels46c907.98$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.2835142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Sentinels56c896.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed FURIA Esports56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.866445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed FURIA Esports56c857.14$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.143026.7%8 W · 22 L-6.6wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-45.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf2a9…72d2backed FURIA Esports55c854.55$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.551145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FURIA Esports58c835.09$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.7678562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Sentinels49c822.15$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.9145250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FURIA Esports56c756.92$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6228847.6%137 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed FURIA Esports56c750.99$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.4420840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FURIA Esports54c749.99$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34528740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked FURIA Esports55c735$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.753743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked FURIA Esports57c732$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.762556%14 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Sentinels42c707.11$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8426634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked FURIA Esports57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.754252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed Sentinels43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed FURIA Esports56c685.16$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.4725761.1%157 W · 100 L+22.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked FURIA Esports57c667.61$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.076762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked FURIA Esports55c665.45$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4510346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FURIA Esports56c659.89$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3517740.1%71 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sentinels29c640.56$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.311,38047.1%650 W · 730 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked FURIA Esports56c626.99$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.568043.8%35 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Sentinels34c626.47$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9517150.9%87 W · 84 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed FURIA Esports70c622.99$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.922455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Sentinels29c600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1746339.7%25 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed FURIA Esports53c599.98$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Sentinels45c571.91$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3631153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FURIA Esports56c570$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Sentinels45c551.57$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022649.1%111 W · 115 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed FURIA Esports50c529.67$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.4511258%65 W · 47 L+12.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sentinels45c527.01$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.871,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed FURIA Esports55c506.84$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.0862156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8227…0bccbacked Sentinels50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…c7a1backed FURIA Esports62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Sentinels46c498.61$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3615553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports55c495.73$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1624250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Sentinels47c485.42$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.517443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc762…15bbbacked FURIA Esports56c480$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked FURIA Esports57c461$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.233770.3%26 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Sentinels43c453.53$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1965240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.