TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hornets, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,186,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,249,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,186,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets18c85,919$15,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,439.254,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hornets18c40,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,799.9651350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets47c38,028$17,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,201.255,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Hornets18c33,333$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,333.339641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hornets18c24,002$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,681.651,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Cavaliers72c20,887$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Hornets17c19,231$3,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,961.3816942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Hornets18c18,037$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,85547028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Cavaliers64c16,573$10,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,596.5848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets49c15,613$7,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,011.343,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Hornets17c15,015$2,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,412.0227424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Cavaliers57c14,195$8,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,091.0925945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb632…7ec5backed Hornets77c12,034$9,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.787959.5%47 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cavaliers49c11,955$5,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,908.632,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Hornets18c11,194$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,178.781,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cavaliers45c10,105$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.721,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Hornets18c10,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,199.9931445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hornets53c9,861$5,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,628.2785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hornets17c9,761$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,101.781,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4087…1665backed Hornets37c8,121$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,120.963737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Cavaliers79c7,824$6,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,209.7661851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Hornets18c7,452$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,110.8192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Cavaliers62c6,415$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,971.036051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Hornets18c5,986$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,914.4848944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Hornets21c5,939$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,707.2248347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4f…f290backed Hornets34c5,687$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,753.623237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hornets24c5,616$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,281.511,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cavaliers58c5,325$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.921,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hornets16c5,182$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352.821,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Cavaliers1c5,152$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets19c5,100$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,151.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets19c5,053$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,085.542,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets26c5,049$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,723.933,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Cavaliers45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2508343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cavaliers72c4,888$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5251,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Hornets56c4,793$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.3638649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Hornets30c4,381$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.455832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Hornets23c4,185$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.4789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9725…2365backed Cavaliers54c3,928$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.353259.4%19 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Hornets64c3,805$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.1662652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Hornets39c3,703$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250.5748845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Hornets21c3,526$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.8835651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd584…a0f0backed Cavaliers54c3,249$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Cavaliers53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81c2…cb74backed Hornets24c2,854$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cavaliers45c2,820$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.9481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d9…a6e1backed Cavaliers72c2,786$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005667.9%38 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Cavaliers60c2,600$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.4221923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Cavaliers59c2,558$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x766c…f6cabacked Hornets24c2,543$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Cavaliers3c2,508$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.628820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Hornets21c2,381$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.9516136%58 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers52c2,380$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.74,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Hornets22c2,360$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.0734227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Cavaliers79c2,171$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.1543958.8%258 W · 181 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Cavaliers48c2,073$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.2726034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Hornets18c2,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad07…f121backed Hornets18c2,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6401844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Hornets73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9915549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Hornets66c1,987$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.983455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Hornets38c1,927$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.7525146.2%116 W · 135 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Cavaliers24c1,917$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8229635.8%106 W · 190 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Cavaliers52c1,911$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.521,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda2…3fa5backed Hornets18c1,900$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Cavaliers2c1,872$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4419419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Cavaliers56c1,820$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.22437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Hornets63c1,752$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.9743051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Hornets67c1,698$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.315657.1%32 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Cavaliers50c1,685$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83417441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Cavaliers1c1,677$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.771,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Hornets20c1,605$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.3647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Cavaliers61c1,604$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98340041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Cavaliers66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x466d…bd6cbacked Hornets24c1,508$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Hornets10c1,504$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.3139018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Hornets16c1,500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9822637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa1…a24cbacked Hornets18c1,490$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.84100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+212.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Cavaliers66c1,417$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Hornets17c1,400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.8921538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Hornets19c1,398$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.4260834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Hornets25c1,310$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.71,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Cavaliers51c1,303$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.1911834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Hornets17c1,300$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0731,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdd…aab4backed Hornets18c1,300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0661457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+52.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc605…6d50backed Hornets24c1,211$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6acc…e6eebacked Hornets35c1,207$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2128…4c6dbacked Hornets40c1,172$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.124233.3%14 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers51c1,152$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.141,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb25…837bbacked Cavaliers43c1,113$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe91…7b3dbacked Hornets18c1,106$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.5619144.5%85 W · 106 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc668…b6d8backed Hornets18c1,100$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9021752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2efa…bb1dbacked Cavaliers76c1,093$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+849.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a2…b10bbacked Cavaliers61c1,081$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.492661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Cavaliers47c1,063$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002330.4%7 W · 16 L-6.1wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf33d…c852backed Hornets19c1,047$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.983933.3%13 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Cavaliers49c1,030$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023140.3%93 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ed…f51cbacked Cavaliers48c1,011$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.741921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cf2…9621backed Cavaliers32c1,000$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3255773.7%42 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Cavaliers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Cavaliers56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5604868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.