TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,771 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Under55c9,165$5,000 inWon+$4,165.0876746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c5,628$2,598 inLost-$2,597.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over48c1,188$570 inLost-$570.4640350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Under53c1,066$565 inWon+$501.0415756.7%89 W · 68 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under52c1,040$541 inWon+$499.3850754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over44c825$367 inLost-$367.082,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over45c744.91$335 inLost-$335.212,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over47c589.11$278 inLost-$278.321,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over47c500$237 inLost-$2371,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Over2c500$10 inLost-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over45c500$225 inLost-$2251,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over50c426$212 inLost-$211.582,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c395.74$206 inLost-$205.538,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over44c200$87 inLost-$874,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.441,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over46c148.33$68 inLost-$68.2380744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x086f…8bc3backed Over49c101$49 inLost-$49.492751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over45c100$45 inLost-$452,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43fc…51c6backed Over60c50$30 inLost-$301030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-52.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5899…032dbacked Over45c44.47$20 inLost-$202450%12 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Under58c34.48$20 inWon+$14.484353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over47c33$16 inLost-$15.6625150.2%126 W · 125 L-1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over53c28.33$15 inLost-$14.8952643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over48c22.34$11 inLost-$10.7210234.3%35 W · 67 L-12.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under54c21$11 inWon+$9.661,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.