NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf479ac4c347023917d0571326c78aa3df2755ed7dd70da08dbaccc68ed939722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Cavaliers, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 51c | 38,184$19,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,319.31 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Hornets | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Cavaliers | 47c | 10,391$4,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,884 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Hornets | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Hornets | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.98 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…d497backed Cavaliers | 49c | 8,449$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 5,429$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Hornets | 49c | 4,623$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 48c | 4,166$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.32 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,295$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.76 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 2,142$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 2,078$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Hornets | 50c | 1,900$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Cavaliers | 49c | 1,716$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.85 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Hornets | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 51c | 1,252$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Hornets | 53c | 981.13$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.13 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 48c | 902.53$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.21 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Hornets | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 34c | 757.58$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.58 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 53c | 577.29$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.33 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 572$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Hornets | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Cavaliers | 52c | 430.77$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 47c | 410.61$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Hornets | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 49c | 349.1$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 47c | 319$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Cavaliers | 71c | 282.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 47c | 276.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Hornets | 50c | 248$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Hornets | 52c | 245$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hornets | 29c | 232.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Hornets | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Hornets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Cavaliers | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Hornets | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hornets | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 48c | 193.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Cavaliers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Hornets | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Hornets | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Hornets | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…21e1backed Hornets | 50c | 104.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Hornets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Hornets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Hornets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Hornets | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…73e7backed Cavaliers | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Hornets | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Hornets | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Hornets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Hornets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 32.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…aadabacked Hornets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Hornets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…c803backed Hornets | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Hornets | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Hornets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa81b…dd67backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Hornets won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. CavaliersHornets won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.