Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Mochizuki (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa19ccde7a0a0b76b0606a91db75b1ae7baaa3557bfa744b4adb329c618b4f92c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Sinner | 73c | 6,860$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.72 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Mochizuki | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…1cfabacked Mochizuki | 28c | 1,737$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.86 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…b60bbacked Sinner | 75c | 1,734$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.7 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Mochizuki | 26c | 1,692$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.15 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mochizuki | 26c | 1,541$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.07 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Sinner | 71c | 1,330$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.58 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mochizuki | 28c | 599.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…cb21backed Sinner | 74c | 530$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Sinner | 77c | 383.19$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Sinner | 74c | 372.4$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mochizuki | 20c | 356.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Sinner | 77c | 332.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sinner | 72c | 309.7$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Mochizuki | 25c | 300.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Mochizuki | 34c | 285.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…b252backed Sinner | 72c | 253.72$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Mochizuki | 27c | 249.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Mochizuki | 25c | 244.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Mochizuki | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mochizuki | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Mochizuki | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mochizuki | 15c | 192.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Sinner | 72c | 186$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Mochizuki | 8c | 182.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Sinner | 70c | 177.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Mochizuki | 30c | 177.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sinner | 75c | 173.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Mochizuki | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Mochizuki | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Mochizuki | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Sinner | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mochizuki | 23c | 126.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Mochizuki | 27c | 120.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Mochizuki | 11c | 104.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…099fbacked Mochizuki | 29c | 103.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mochizuki | 25c | 103.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mochizuki | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Sinner | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Sinner | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Mochizuki | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Mochizuki | 26c | 79.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Sinner | 73c | 75.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Sinner | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mochizuki | 21c | 69.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062c…24d5backed Mochizuki | 26c | 68.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mochizuki | 27c | 67.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Mochizuki | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Mochizuki | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Sinner | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…6520backed Sinner | 74c | 49.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mochizuki | 35c | 46.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Sinner | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Sinner | 72c | 41.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f89…20bbbacked Mochizuki | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Sinner | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Mochizuki (+2.5)this page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Jannik Sinner vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MochizukiSinner won
- Set 2 Winner: Sinner vs MochizukiSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Mochizuki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro MochizukiJannik Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.