Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986838319136b062cf18f6c687c3440cf000585ead10a226e5a7365212b63c06

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $205,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $190,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,053 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90fa…2ecdbacked Yes	0c	50,788$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	65c	11,998$7,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,798.7	118	53.4%63 W · 55 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes	0c	5,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	113	1.8%2 W · 111 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	+96.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No	22c	5,293$1,177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,115.53	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	26c	4,645$1,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,225.88	160	29.4%47 W · 113 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	28c	4,496$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,243.92	121	33.1%40 W · 81 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe306…d100backed Yes	76c	2,816$2,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,149.5	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes	23c	2,640$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.6	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	31c	2,388$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.56	81	38.3%31 W · 50 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	15c	2,014$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.69	206	14.6%30 W · 176 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No	28c	1,897$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,374.45	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+3.0wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+112.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes	78c	1,500$1,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes	25c	1,441$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.52	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf21…1ec2backed Yes	36c	1,274$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No	53c	1,250$666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$584.5	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	76c	1,228$935 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.97	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	35c	1,205$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.31	197	42.6%84 W · 113 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes	28c	1,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4428…12adbacked Yes	48c	996.92$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes	30c	973.1$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.77	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes	34c	884.6$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes	19c	871.23$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.69	89	21.3%19 W · 70 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+105.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes	28c	711.31$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	72c	655.68$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.79	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes	29c	653$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.29	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee26…1cfebacked Yes	24c	645.5$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.87	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes	28c	600$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes	41c	576.91$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.43	200	34%68 W · 132 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	43c	525.49$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.52	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed Yes	72c	502.01$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.63	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+164.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes	38c	500$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.25	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab9…60b2backed Yes	62c	481.59$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cff…5924backed Yes	31c	471.06$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes	52c	452.89$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.63	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes	38c	442.87$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.47	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes	36c	388.32$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.7	240	21.3%51 W · 189 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked Yes	26c	361.54$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c5…d7d6backed Yes	66c	359.24$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2c…a0a4backed Yes	48c	344.11$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.1	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes	30c	300$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes	25c	300$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	27c	291.11$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.28	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4312…01debacked Yes	34c	286.96$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dec…f343backed Yes	33c	253.61$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.69	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No	61c	253.32$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.62	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	-6.4wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb187…615fbacked Yes	36c	250$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	22c	249.9$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.28	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9917…6cc3backed No	68c	230.87$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.88	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	40c	221.3$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.36	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+9.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133e…4224backed Yes	25c	203.8$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.61	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc704…65a7backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6711…7d95backed Yes	27c	199.8$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.95	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-40%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62a9…1c31backed Yes	33c	194.64$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No	69c	170$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.7	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d13…082cbacked Yes	37c	160.95$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.44	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes	37c	160.25$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.79	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9c9…8a0fbacked Yes	38c	159$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.42	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes	31c	150$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed No	65c	147.14$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.5	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb02…c534backed Yes	34c	145.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6884…54d8backed Yes	24c	125$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.95	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	52c	123.08$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.91	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes	40c	121$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.82	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No	80c	117.73$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.81	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x657a…aad5backed Yes	26c	115.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56c…59abbacked Yes	33c	103.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked No	20c	101$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed Yes	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2d…48b7backed No	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb61e…b7ddbacked Yes	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…68bfbacked No	69c	94.72$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.36	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf47f…e866backed Yes	34c	94.62$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.97	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…31c4backed Yes	32c	93.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9389…711cbacked Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57f…e9ccbacked No	68c	90.65$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.01	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+89.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc732…3d4cbacked No	68c	89.26$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea94…6cbcbacked Yes	36c	85.9$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3602…c161backed Yes	26c	85.38$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+22%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb8…fec3backed Yes	33c	80.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.61	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	42c	80$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	+6.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes	16c	78.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	21c	77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	152	37.5%57 W · 95 L	+8.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…ecaabacked No	68c	76.25$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00a2…00eebacked No	69c	72.54$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.49	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c5…99b7backed Yes	33c	70.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a8…faa7backed Yes	61c	65.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa9…481bbacked Yes	23c	65.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8bb1…af27backed Yes	24c	62.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed No	68c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes	24c	57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x717b…2234backed No	68c	56.69$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.14	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb496…4bf7backed No	68c	56.31$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.02	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x794b…b7d6backed No	68c	50.84$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.27	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes	34c	50.01$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No	63c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	73	31.5%23 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?this page
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win by 2-4%?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?Yes won
Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?No won
Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event