World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523336194cc9c82f30b332feab9ebe3540908049ceaa506bf1d9a5de52becbce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 7,992$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.3 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 7,700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 5c | 6,743$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.18 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 3,603$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,326$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 6c | 2,278$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,704$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 4c | 1,657$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 5c | 1,506$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 4c | 1,130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6308…36a9backed Yes | 9c | 1,059$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 880.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 4c | 799.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 4c | 779.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 7c | 730.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 5c | 699.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 7c | 498.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 4c | 483.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed Yes | 5c | 416$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…9d53backed Yes | 9c | 397.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 6c | 389.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…18d4backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc1…9be6backed Yes | 8c | 172.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 2-4%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.