World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d9cce011bb5a5e126c1af3de9d1e1754344bebc46325c363c3da1c9b271dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 11,283$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 31c | 10,008$3,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.32 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 29c | 5,374$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.4 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 18c | 5,000$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.32 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 30c | 2,857$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.21 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 2,473$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 2,300$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.99 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,005$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 25c | 1,441$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 5c | 1,424$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 18c | 1,206$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.01 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed Yes | 5c | 1,095$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 23c | 767.05$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 661.21$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.13 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 20c | 577.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 25c | 482.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 17c | 454.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 24c | 400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…481bbacked Yes | 9c | 360.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…f39abacked Yes | 5c | 338$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…01debacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 31c | 318.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 5c | 247.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…a0a4backed Yes | 17c | 203.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 183.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…615fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 13c | 137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…1ec2backed Yes | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…7e8dbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 14c | 107.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…8597backed Yes | 31c | 103$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…648fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…ac20backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc162…9c10backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…c7a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…2c48backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…06f2backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…0187backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7185…072bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…c161backed Yes | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…aad5backed Yes | 19c | 88.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 31c | 87.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 21c | 58.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed No | 76c | 54.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…eedbbacked No | 71c | 54.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5f…e9b2backed No | 70c | 53.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +88%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…52fabacked Yes | 30c | 52.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6625…f310backed No | 71c | 51.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…2491backed No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…34a1backed No | 68c | 48.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…5fc6backed No | 71c | 44.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 40.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…c32ebacked No | 70c | 30.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…75f5backed No | 70c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 2-4%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.