World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3527769a6401297aa741191003d2b2c7b43d4e768d88b1f24c2a803ee7b1439d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 12,971$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.12 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…5a2cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,621$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…da1cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,471$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…5aeebacked Yes | 0c | 12,425$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1789…74afbacked Yes | 0c | 12,321$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e1…3095backed Yes | 0c | 12,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…de75backed Yes | 0c | 12,165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…fcb2backed Yes | 0c | 12,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…e32bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24e7backed Yes | 0c | 12,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…1da2backed Yes | 0c | 12,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…459cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…8984backed Yes | 0c | 11,997$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…1bb1backed Yes | 0c | 11,677$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0807…60f2backed Yes | 0c | 11,677$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 8,745$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 14c | 7,459$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.81 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 18c | 2,667$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 13c | 2,615$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 2,088$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.79 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,735$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.38 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 6c | 1,109$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 12c | 767.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 621.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 11c | 561.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 20c | 488.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 12c | 429.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed Yes | 8c | 425$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 8c | 264.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…7e8dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…f39abacked Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 13c | 128.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 2-4%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.