Middle East · resolved market
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e56f8a6d7cff0d84ca2e20c3352ef7d698e71be8a613bf161f1048bfba3519c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 0c | 15,346$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 39c | 3,398$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.74 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…c9eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,860$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 21c | 1,751$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.95 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 71c | 1,063$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.75 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 7c | 1,009$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 67c | 988.49$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.2 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 41c | 849$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 788.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.78 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 79c | 783.62$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 62c | 752$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 59c | 710$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 69c | 684$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 68c | 609.67$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 38c | 471$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 457.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 74c | 407.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 80c | 386.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 79c | 380.36$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…a457backed Yes | 14c | 350.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 15c | 330$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 75c | 286.68$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 55c | 282.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 38c | 281$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 249.54$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…3873backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed No | 74c | 210$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 41c | 196.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1ecebacked Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 40c | 149.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…42debacked Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 72c | 143.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 78c | 128.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…fe18backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 113.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 102.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 30c | 101.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…5d02backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 59c | 86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 77c | 67.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked Yes | 28c | 61.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a7…4105backed No | 68c | 38.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…5d73backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 41c | 32.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…f4d1backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…214fbacked No | 77c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…9cfebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…767abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1df…c1a3backed No | 72c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…efffbacked No | 60c | 24.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 67c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…fc49backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…48a3backed No | 57c | 20.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 74c | 17.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 69c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…fe59backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…b187backed No | 80c | 15.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…b3bcbacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?this page
- Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.