Middle East · resolved market
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ac66b40e03d238b838c6a99b5317c5a0b3a739931283c7b992af281d4ece92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8892…c9eebacked No | 0c | 7,305$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 13c | 2,805$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.71 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 7c | 2,010$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked No | 20c | 1,991$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…3f98backed No | 10c | 1,949$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 14c | 1,524$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…8251backed No | 40c | 1,494$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 61c | 1,146$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 1,037$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 24c | 1,030$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.19 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 25c | 873.04$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 15c | 749.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 39c | 650$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 52c | 643.37$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.82 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed No | 5c | 508$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…7c6fbacked No | 39c | 468$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked No | 17c | 384.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 14c | 383.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 26c | 330.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 8c | 281.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 47c | 258.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…374ebacked No | 4c | 253.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 8c | 229.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…1f9fbacked No | 10c | 222.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 11c | 199.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…118abacked No | 11c | 198.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 193.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…1ff3backed No | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 12c | 109.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 66c | 83.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 66c | 64.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked No | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…be87backed No | 27c | 54.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…5238backed No | 38c | 53.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…9d49backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 69c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…3837backed No | 25c | 43.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 80c | 43.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 71c | 40.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed No | 30c | 39.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 77c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 67c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…8d8fbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…3707backed Yes | 77c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?this page
- Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.