La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Racing Club win on 2025-12-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d1e2775fa2cfc8f79087f805f23ecdaf2f0b08db7c935e2bca8b862aba1e134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Yes | 23c | 22,122$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,121.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Yes | 55c | 11,403$6,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,175.3 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 9,910$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.12 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 6,350$4,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,644.22 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked No | 78c | 6,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 51c | 2,855$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.65 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 15c | 2,153$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.18 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 44c | 2,153$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.31 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 74c | 1,250$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.37 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 1,089$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.36 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,031$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.11 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,009$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.19 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 77c | 630$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 49c | 609.15$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 219 | 57.5%126 W · 93 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 550$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9d…5eb1backed Yes | 22c | 450.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 78c | 385$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 317 | 51.1%162 W · 155 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 78c | 330$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 276 | 52.5%145 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 5c | 317.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed Yes | 22c | 317$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 78c | 220$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 218 | 49.1%107 W · 111 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 78c | 220$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 19c | 219$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.26 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 20c | 209.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 80c | 196.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 78c | 192$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 78c | 179$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…69c1backed Yes | 74c | 178.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 78c | 177.36$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 17c | 173.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.11 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ec…585abacked No | 38c | 155.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 27c | 106.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 103$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Yes | 21c | 94.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 70c | 90.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7bb3backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef3…2cd8backed Yes | 55c | 73.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 74c | 72.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 47c | 61.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 37c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 57c | 56.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 191 | 53.4%102 W · 89 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked No | 79c | 54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 26c | 50.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…af48backed No | 80c | 19.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Racing Club win on 2025-12-17?this page
- Will Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?No won
- Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.