Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea750ed663ee594472a353cca9ef58beea0f22efe90712a48fd98931e203af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,677$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,532$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 2,737$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,403$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 1,834$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 1,826$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 21c | 1,158$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.18 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 18c | 1,086$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 16c | 1,054$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 1,036$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,017$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 16c | 939.69$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 11c | 899.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384e…0a46backed Yes | 3c | 736.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 700$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 2c | 650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 18c | 645.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…6badbacked No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 11c | 563.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 17c | 350.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 202.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…915dbacked Yes | 20c | 197.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ee0cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 153.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…35e4backed Yes | 18c | 135.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…5314backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…a2babacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 24c | 104.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…64c7backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…a261backed Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…a97abacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 16c | 71.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb346…b9b3backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…6317backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…1e7cbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 180–209 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–269 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–299 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–329 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–359 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.