Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbbab3f6a17ae5c91d8d72279de92b49234963c24d78e3cf2bf2d2f18fa9996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 6,693$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,492$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 13c | 3,804$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.32 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.82 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,520$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.7 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 2,307$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,910$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 10c | 1,900$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.38 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbb…f7c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,789$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 7c | 1,740$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 1,739$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 1,506$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.97 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,404$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 1,395$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 76c | 1,106$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 24c | 834.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 29c | 687.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 7c | 680.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 15c | 680$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 4c | 612.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…3af5backed Yes | 18c | 485.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 477.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 438.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 10c | 400.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 3c | 373.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 6c | 372.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 16c | 349.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 4c | 334.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 4c | 331.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…90b7backed Yes | 5c | 329.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 11c | 278.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 6c | 262.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 256.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 241.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 10c | 229$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 13c | 196.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 8c | 189.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…915dbacked Yes | 22c | 171.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 158.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 18c | 133.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 8c | 132.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 17c | 116.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…a2babacked Yes | 18c | 110.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 101.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 13c | 97.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 180–209 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–269 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–299 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–329 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–359 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.