Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e74bf3b87c63bb392f6fdbcd025eec620c09c8d4443048f49ca667630d68931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,446$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,948$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,461$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,272$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,966$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 23c | 3,685$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 77c | 2,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 2c | 2,140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,704$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 11c | 1,575$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 10c | 1,542$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 1,352$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,284$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 1,264$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 1,117$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 12c | 840.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 17c | 828$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 2c | 698.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 5c | 560.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 15c | 450$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 4c | 421.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 342.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 6c | 249.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…5314backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…915dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…64c7backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…a261backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414f…fbecbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 180–209 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–269 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–299 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–329 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–359 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.