Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc73d9c73ca7061f0b1d8d92bfe1b1ca149244a5393b9b5512c06b0911be597d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 54c | 13,463$7,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,269.16 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 2c | 7,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 64c | 6,938$4,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.03 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 6,282$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,902.72 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,485$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 5,178$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,382.15 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 57c | 3,734$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.13 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 3,020$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.45 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked No | 37c | 2,798$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.21 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 61c | 2,617$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.66 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…6badbacked Yes | 17c | 2,565$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 13c | 2,549$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.33 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 28c | 2,186$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.04 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 3c | 2,038$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,030$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.79 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 7c | 1,949$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 3c | 1,775$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 1,665$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.87 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 18c | 1,502$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.48 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 10c | 1,389$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed No | 5c | 1,365$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 54c | 1,356$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 80c | 1,294$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 6c | 1,289$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 49c | 1,143$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.72 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 67c | 1,100$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.44 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,060$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 23c | 1,028$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.95 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 17c | 977.75$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.75 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 22c | 954.86$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.26 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked No | 58c | 874$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked No | 12c | 866.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 16c | 841$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.03 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61e…e70cbacked No | 4c | 800.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 4c | 649.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 26c | 614.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8b…224bbacked No | 10c | 605$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked No | 5c | 604.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 38c | 573.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 35c | 518.35$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.35 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 14c | 483.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.84 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed No | 22c | 448.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 72c | 445.46$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 46c | 434$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.15 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 41c | 424$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 78c | 417.18$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.19 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 379.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.28 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 48c | 378.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 26c | 359.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.27 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 29c | 358$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.18 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 12c | 340.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.93 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed No | 57c | 330$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 325$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.4 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 21c | 323.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.77 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 40c | 298.53$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 17c | 294.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.07 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked No | 28c | 279.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed No | 30c | 259.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed No | 7c | 257.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ea39backed No | 26c | 247.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed No | 7c | 227.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 14c | 225$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked No | 7c | 208.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 46c | 200.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 50c | 198.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 187$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 66c | 181$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 67c | 124$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 12c | 123.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 28c | 122.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed No | 42c | 118.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…4b16backed No | 47c | 108.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…e52dbacked Yes | 58c | 107.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…02c6backed Yes | 69c | 97.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 20c | 93.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…dd2dbacked Yes | 50c | 74.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 19c | 67.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 38c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…85f9backed Yes | 58c | 36.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384e…0a46backed Yes | 71c | 30.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…1fb5backed No | 56c | 24.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 180–209 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–269 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–299 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–329 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–359 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.