Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31fef2ef2eb69b45e9316453c537b514e168974aa79df837a9466e079935f158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 14,795$8,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,092.25 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…7705backed Yes | 38c | 14,008$5,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,292.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…964ebacked Yes | 52c | 5,317$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 59c | 1,121$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.11 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 1c | 1,080$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.42 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…d0c4backed Yes | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked No | 75c | 669.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 68c | 596.7$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed No | 72c | 443.83$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Yes | 65c | 407.25$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 31c | 376.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Yes | 48c | 335.46$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 69c | 316.36$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 283.4$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 41c | 250.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 26c | 236.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 55c | 175.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 62c | 170$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Yes | 60c | 158.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 55c | 145.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 52c | 142.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 8c | 134.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Yes | 75c | 119.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 52c | 115.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 58c | 105.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 43c | 100.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 134 | 26.1%35 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 54c | 92.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 29c | 88.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…a1ccbacked Yes | 24c | 83.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +252.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 28c | 73.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bdc6backed Yes | 31c | 69.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6642…31cdbacked Yes | 44c | 64.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4544…6859backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 60c | 48.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 48c | 45.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 37c | 44.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 68c | 42.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ba…4e6cbacked Yes | 37c | 41.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…0565backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed Yes | 47c | 35.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…1388backed Yes | 31c | 34.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…3b64backed Yes | 30c | 33.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…4851backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…41a8backed Yes | 63c | 32.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…3fc0backed Yes | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Yes | 60c | 19.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will CD Nacional vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.