Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x339edd925f7f64a41c3f30c54d9c59d080f7d5b52ab17809ad702ecc7484c86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 41c | 15,000$6,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,850 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 59c | 14,814$8,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,740.39 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 4c | 1,588$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 60c | 1,253$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.54 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90fc…064fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,119$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 61c | 1,018$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.9 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 38c | 990$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.92 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 58c | 952.74$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.59 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 795.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.08 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +952.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5756…6361backed Yes | 16c | 596.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +508.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 39c | 583.12$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 61c | 532.63$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 59c | 508.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 59c | 383.31$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.55 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 268.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 17c | 252.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.29 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…7d8abacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Yes | 10c | 200.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 10c | 198.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 43c | 186$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 33c | 184.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…4015backed Yes | 15c | 148.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…8ac9backed Yes | 41c | 147.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…a1ccbacked Yes | 14c | 140.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +252.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 22c | 134.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 41c | 120.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…4cc1backed Yes | 27c | 110.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 20c | 94.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 26c | 69.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 33c | 65.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 60c | 54.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 67c | 43.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Yes | 29c | 41.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…2ff5backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 41c | 26.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will CD Nacional vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.