Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c47ba2820b109fb146fd7794fe420b95e0a5aebd9b5e09b0719b87767e7462a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +952.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…7705backed Yes | 79c | 2,721$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 11c | 1,300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 781.29$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.2 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 645.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 11c | 246.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.19 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 32c | 184.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…5d73backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 36c | 109.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 38c | 105.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…c08bbacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 30c | 84.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 134 | 26.1%35 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…1d13backed Yes | 67c | 82.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 63.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 40c | 61.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…e9fabacked Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 57.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…8ac9backed Yes | 65c | 53.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 73c | 51.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…f7b8backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 31c | 47.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 42.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed Yes | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…1388backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 38c | 32.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…3b64backed Yes | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…16a0backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 67c | 18.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
- Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.