Fifa International · resolved market
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5363e7a66c9b5df9ba60357e9dfaab74b07b3eb744334733ee8180394ee46e0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8616…c877backed Yes | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Yes | 80c | 1,193$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.87 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked No | 21c | 1,138$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.03 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 27c | 1,016$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…b34dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 26c | 979.72$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.73 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 67c | 761.43$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.93 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 79c | 709.45$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 73c | 700$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 24c | 641.16$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked No | 27c | 520$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 78c | 511.05$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 26c | 495$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Yes | 69c | 483$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 24c | 471.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Yes | 73c | 439.81$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 26c | 415$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 412.72$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 79c | 402$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes | 76c | 395.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 26c | 383.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 24c | 355$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes | 74c | 340$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 111 | 65.8%73 W · 38 L | +15.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 28c | 323.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 76c | 306$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 20c | 245.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 203$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked No | 25c | 189$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 69c | 158.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 23c | 154.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Yes | 79c | 151.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 150.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed Yes | 78c | 128.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 133 | 72.9%97 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 123.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes | 80c | 118.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 709 | 48.9%347 W · 362 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed No | 56c | 111.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 76c | 106.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 75c | 106.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…5adebacked No | 35c | 101.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 90.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 22c | 70.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…80debacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 60.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 74c | 57.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 50c | 55.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…8bfabacked Yes | 77c | 51.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 80c | 50.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…d870backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3567…0955backed Yes | 80c | 35.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Yes | 78c | 35.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…70b7backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 213 | 62%132 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b1c4backed Yes | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…6e05backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…87d0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…6fcabacked Yes | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…ade2backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Algeria finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.