TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Rockets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof 76ers, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,197,615
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,537,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,197,615 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,095 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1961…c461backed Rockets73c174,350$126,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,908.478750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed 76ers31c153,013$47,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,433.9587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Rockets70c119,518$83,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,057.0136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed 76ers30c102,706$30,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,819.7666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked 76ers32c98,228$31,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,433.024957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Rockets68c97,881$66,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,321.9972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a114backed Rockets63c96,513$60,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,112.653554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Rockets67c86,068$57,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,402.4132653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked 76ers26c83,533$21,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,627.961,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Rockets74c77,882$57,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,261.091,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Rockets63c77,709$48,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,755.3136359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed 76ers0c71,438$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2065213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed 76ers31c62,309$19,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,315.7943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacdf…f80abacked Rockets64c53,010$34,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,8274656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Rockets69c49,070$33,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,211.73145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Rockets69c49,070$33,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,211.720758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed 76ers1c47,426$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.077412.2%9 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Rockets68c46,526$31,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,888.418148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets78c46,221$35,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,370.252,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed 76ers37c42,000$15,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,5403641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed 76ers2c37,528$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.1226337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers26c36,525$9,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,523.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed 76ers32c35,634$11,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,299.9663746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Rockets62c34,854$21,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,244.4419957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Rockets61c31,891$19,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,355.97243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed 76ers35c28,615$10,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,070.441,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed 76ers4c26,891$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.2359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked 76ers34c25,934$8,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,844.044,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Rockets68c25,422$17,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,135.119745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed 76ers38c24,555$9,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,330.974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed 76ers9c23,060$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.13,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed 76ers32c20,730$6,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,614.6990650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked 76ers35c20,604$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,280.4620744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Rockets61c20,000$12,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80020454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff52…8ccfbacked Rockets70c19,640$13,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8924100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers35c19,104$6,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,608.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed 76ers1c17,851$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4567911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 76ers9c17,662$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.662,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked 76ers30c16,890$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0675655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 76ers36c16,580$5,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,956.451,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 76ers16c16,268$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.681,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Rockets70c14,730$10,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4198953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets69c14,649$10,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,541.0442348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Rockets68c14,278$9,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.818763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets68c14,191$9,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,541.191,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed 76ers36c14,000$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.9586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed 76ers16c13,525$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.936023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked 76ers36c13,500$4,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,904.9643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed 76ers1c12,525$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed 76ers30c12,500$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.8957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed 76ers37c12,481$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,573.7965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked 76ers31c12,270$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.7235444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed 76ers1c11,304$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3300%0 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a87…bce2backed Rockets69c10,842$7,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.951070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed 76ers33c10,757$3,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,557.592437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Rockets68c10,499$7,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.731,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked 76ers31c10,480$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.8628649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed 76ers1c10,228$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1417042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1058…7314backed Rockets69c10,100$6,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Rockets69c9,995$6,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,098.4921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked 76ers31c9,787$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.0695651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96dd…17febacked Rockets61c9,759$5,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,805.868661.6%53 W · 33 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed 76ers0c9,744$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.88820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rockets67c9,041$6,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.933,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked 76ers38c9,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9523742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed 76ers16c9,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.961,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ac…6ab1backed 76ers1c8,990$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.47119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked 76ers0c8,961$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked 76ers34c8,391$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,828.716743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Rockets67c8,004$5,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,641.444548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed 76ers30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9921549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets70c7,856$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.81,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed 76ers39c7,855$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.4235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked 76ers35c7,561$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.183647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed 76ers40c7,148$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,890.439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 76ers3c6,738$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.521,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked 76ers1c6,510$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.77211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked 76ers26c6,283$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.3610743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Rockets79c6,270$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.575160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed 76ers31c6,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Rockets70c5,892$4,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.68361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed 76ers37c5,582$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.3221350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed 76ers30c5,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65031644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed 76ers32c5,479$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.2647856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6c…0b29backed 76ers0c5,448$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2317430.5%53 W · 121 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked 76ers8c5,392$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.4164944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed 76ers2c5,228$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.111417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed 76ers30c5,005$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.4914244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99cb…b02cbacked 76ers0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed 76ers0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc862…e047backed 76ers30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed 76ers31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked 76ers31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x046c…8ca3backed 76ers30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009330.1%28 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked 76ers38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.8647043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed 76ers22c4,830$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.95,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…6609backed 76ers37c4,800$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed 76ers34c4,667$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.162,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Rockets69c4,551$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.948859.1%52 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed 76ers30c4,380$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3145747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.