NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd02a1ae3aa6199faac0172a90c0976c763a65482b724b3717f92b402cf797466

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, 76ers
Resolved: Apr 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $99,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $104,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,688 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed 76ers	52c	50,502$26,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,261.25	431	48.7%210 W · 221 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Rockets	48c	49,259$23,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,614.71	603	51.4%310 W · 293 L	+16.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Rockets	48c	12,000$5,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,239.99	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked 76ers	51c	9,935$5,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,066.85	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39a1…b793backed 76ers	52c	8,636$4,491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,490.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Rockets	49c	5,816$2,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,966.36	170	55.3%94 W · 76 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	51c	5,703$2,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,908.77	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets	49c	5,088$2,493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,594.81	1,194	48.8%583 W · 611 L	-22.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	15c	2,572$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Rockets	49c	2,373$1,163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,210.28	274	55.5%152 W · 122 L	+15.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed 76ers	52c	2,317$1,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,206.41	169	46.7%79 W · 90 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed 76ers	51c	1,218$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.04	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Rockets	48c	1,100$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-9.5wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Rockets	48c	984.16$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.77	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Rockets	49c	791.35$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.59	134	41%55 W · 79 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked 76ers	52c	582.72$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.01	206	50%103 W · 103 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Rockets	48c	471.47$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.16	135	63%85 W · 50 L	+15.6wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Rockets	49c	463.08$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.17	304	53.3%162 W · 142 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Rockets	67c	408.26$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.72	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Rockets	49c	373.22$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.34	193	48.2%93 W · 100 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Rockets	48c	316.97$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.82	225	52.4%118 W · 107 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Rockets	49c	298.58$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.27	775	49.2%381 W · 394 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Rockets	49c	290.82$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.32	288	52.1%150 W · 138 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Rockets	49c	213.66$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.97	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e00…b66abacked 76ers	52c	186.77$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.12	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Rockets	49c	172.01$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.73	487	51.7%252 W · 235 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…debbbacked Rockets	49c	152.2$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.62	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Rockets	49c	151.23$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.13	156	50.6%79 W · 77 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked 76ers	52c	149.42$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.7	348	49.7%173 W · 175 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Rockets	49c	147.67$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.31	357	44.3%158 W · 199 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked 76ers	52c	131.16$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Rockets	48c	120.09$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.45	394	48.7%192 W · 202 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Rockets	49c	118.7$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.54	332	51.2%170 W · 162 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Rockets	47c	107.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.38	388	53.4%207 W · 181 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked 76ers	50c	104.32$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.74	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Rockets	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	970	49.5%480 W · 490 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 76ers	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed 76ers	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	448	21.4%96 W · 352 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed 76ers	52c	99.98$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	410	50.7%208 W · 202 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8138…1052backed Rockets	49c	99.43$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.71	94	54.3%51 W · 43 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Rockets	49c	98.92$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.45	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Rockets	49c	97.73$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.84	313	54.6%171 W · 142 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9896…c430backed Rockets	49c	93.99$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.94	178	52.2%93 W · 85 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed 76ers	52c	93.38$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	660	46.4%306 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Rockets	49c	91.2$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.51	592	55.4%328 W · 264 L	+23.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed 76ers	51c	79.98$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	229	42.8%98 W · 131 L	-9.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed 76ers	41c	77.41$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Rockets	47c	71.83$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.07	274	50%137 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Rockets	49c	68.83$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	236	55.5%131 W · 105 L	+12.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Rockets	49c	67.86$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.61	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+7.5wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+21%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Rockets	49c	67.73$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.54	272	46.7%127 W · 145 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa028…0031backed Rockets	49c	64.83$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.06	306	54.6%167 W · 139 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Rockets	49c	62.04$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.64	147	53.7%79 W · 68 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked 76ers	52c	59.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.19	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a2…27a0backed Rockets	49c	59.35$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.27	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked 76ers	52c	46.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.28	167	49.1%82 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda29…7907backed Rockets	49c	46.53$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.73	126	53.2%67 W · 59 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e1…4925backed Rockets	49c	43.58$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.23	170	57.1%97 W · 73 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked 76ers	40c	43.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x409b…21e8backed Rockets	49c	39.73$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.26	258	55.8%144 W · 114 L	+12.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Rockets	49c	39.57$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.18	519	46.8%243 W · 276 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5d…ef01backed Rockets	49c	39.57$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.18	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+52%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…4961backed Rockets	49c	39.57$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.18	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d94…954ebacked Rockets	49c	39.57$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.18	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d1…371bbacked Rockets	49c	39.53$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked 76ers	51c	38.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa306…1417backed 76ers	52c	38.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…7f2cbacked Rockets	51c	38.32$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.92	67	62.7%42 W · 25 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed 76ers	52c	37.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 76ers	44c	35.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed 76ers	54c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	153	53.6%82 W · 71 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Rockets	49c	32.53$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.59	898	53.1%477 W · 421 L	+21.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0e…3a70backed Rockets	49c	31.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	150	53.3%80 W · 70 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Rockets	49c	29.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.13	405	48.6%197 W · 208 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Rockets	49c	29.08$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.83	596	50.3%300 W · 296 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Rockets	76c	25.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.22	524	61.6%323 W · 201 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ac…37fbbacked Rockets	75c	24.01$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.11	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc491…8012backed Rockets	49c	23.74$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.11	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.25per pick	45cpaid	+51%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc94…9954backed Rockets	49c	22.95$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	157	56.7%89 W · 68 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Rockets	49c	22.49$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	185	48.1%89 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 76ers	51c	21.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed 76ers	52c	19.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	390	41%160 W · 230 L	-32.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event