NBA · resolved market
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa800063a621c01a76a08cc8d9ae4655f212ef6c6ab86aa4d47e306658e0ca9d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 52c | 149.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 48c | 111.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 96.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 42.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…31b0backed Yes | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…cceebacked Yes | 64c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…5f1fbacked No | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…09c9backed Yes | 51c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebd…38cfbacked Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5this page
- 76ers vs. RocketsRockets won
- 76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5No won
- VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.