South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f14ffe63209331762c983115188a6f73a9d10236950eadb0ae3a34ea1700fa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 3,600$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.15 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 1,528$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 1,214$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.88 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 43c | 951.52$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.39 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…d067backed Yes | 56c | 949.72$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 22c | 847.97$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes | 65c | 727.67$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes | 23c | 724.51$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 5c | 604.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 24c | 397.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 305.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 241.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 36c | 213.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 6c | 204.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 62c | 200.88$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 50c | 189.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 184.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…d956backed Yes | 49c | 176.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 141.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 51c | 126.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf870…ae68backed Yes | 27c | 123.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 120.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 59c | 120.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 15c | 118.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed No | 78c | 114.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…a775backed Yes | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1159…6228backed Yes | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 74c | 100.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Yes | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 24c | 98.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7549…9745backed No | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 59c | 76.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 59c | 76.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 59c | 76.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 59c | 74.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 61c | 70.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 62c | 65.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 62c | 65.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 63c | 62.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 38c | 61.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 76c | 57.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 74c | 53.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 24c | 50.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 66c | 49.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No | 79c | 45.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 69c | 36.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 36.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 68c | 34.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 35c | 34.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 53c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 53c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…a37abacked Yes | 32c | 33.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 38c | 32.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked No | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Yes | 48c | 29.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 27.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 52c | 27.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 56c | 25.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 55c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed No | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed No | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…f646backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2565…9e92backed Yes | 70c | 16.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.