Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa562d60806af98d85f6fef751aad6c5905033736fcd68fed68c80f18fd691c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 4,172$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.95 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 2,628$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.74 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 1,951$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.91 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…0c97backed Yes | 23c | 1,056$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed No | 79c | 718.05$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…16b1backed Yes | 23c | 680$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…79efbacked Yes | 23c | 646$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…f1a6backed No | 77c | 618$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…110cbacked Yes | 23c | 597$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 21c | 539.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…bf11backed Yes | 23c | 520$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…8ff9backed No | 77c | 438$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d0…443abacked Yes | 23c | 436$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…8e63backed No | 77c | 420$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…1a5ebacked Yes | 19c | 410$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…5121backed No | 77c | 377$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…98cabacked No | 77c | 318$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…ae77backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04e…9e28backed No | 77c | 279$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…cedcbacked No | 77c | 269$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…694dbacked No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 25c | 246.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…0dcfbacked No | 77c | 240$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 20c | 236.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +388.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…c374backed No | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 22c | 196.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…0c52backed No | 77c | 196$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Yes | 19c | 189.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 149.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 78c | 137.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 77c | 120.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0afebacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Yes | 21c | 109$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 21c | 108.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…1210backed Yes | 17c | 94.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked No | 80c | 94.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 20c | 82.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 78c | 60.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 21c | 51.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…56cbbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 78c | 30.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 77cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…443fbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-12-18?this page
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.