Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20afcc8ca05f6387211585dd180674f81541b59f5008c7dd138106eec65a363f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 27c | 10,420$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,606.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed No | 73c | 4,450$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 3,048$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.04 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 70c | 1,770$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 938.71$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.37 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 845.09$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.37 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 73c | 687.47$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa242…d67abacked Yes | 52c | 632.05$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…e8e9backed Yes | 67c | 566.43$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 26c | 453.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.73 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 428$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.32 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 30c | 351.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.72 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 27c | 299$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.36 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 46c | 277.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 220.79$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 73c | 134.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 110.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…16c9backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +356.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 30c | 48.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 48.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 73c | 47.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42a…bf40backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 40.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 34.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 72c | 24.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 18.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-12-18?No won
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.