Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5c2225599157e5c54739adeaa1f4c3d7b608f026e0ddc1cd3dac34dd14f765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $646,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $637,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $646,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 11c | 110,227$11,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,886.65 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 27c | 52,126$13,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,991.42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked No | 33c | 35,438$11,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,706.63 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5e…1740backed No | 4c | 31,153$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 6c | 26,020$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.85 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…2b5bbacked Yes | 74c | 15,064$11,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,902.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed No | 1c | 13,422$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 9c | 12,600$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.59 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed No | 11c | 11,507$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.74 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 67c | 9,271$6,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 8,401$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed No | 15c | 7,597$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.02 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed No | 13c | 7,579$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…66d9backed No | 0c | 6,889$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 6,445$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.89 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked Yes | 61c | 5,666$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 61c | 5,285$3,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.65 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 80c | 4,672$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.01 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…5f52backed No | 33c | 4,600$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 11c | 4,448$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 7c | 4,281$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed No | 11c | 3,443$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 57c | 3,387$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 12c | 3,373$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 73c | 3,223$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.31 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 7c | 2,846$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 67c | 2,793$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…1516backed No | 8c | 2,576$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…9689backed No | 3c | 2,510$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 18c | 2,461$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.52 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…a78abacked No | 13c | 2,337$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 11c | 2,206$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.33 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed No | 14c | 2,119$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 14c | 2,079$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.95 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 49c | 2,060$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 25c | 2,000$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.79 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…293ebacked No | 12c | 1,893$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 52c | 1,824$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.52 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 18c | 1,767$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.98 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 14c | 1,701$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed No | 55c | 1,700$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed No | 9c | 1,689$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…1747backed No | 28c | 1,627$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43db…133ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,600$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 25c | 1,586$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.32 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 36c | 1,580$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.84 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…9d46backed No | 7c | 1,534$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedd…f7bdbacked No | 66c | 1,508$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 13c | 1,312$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 62c | 1,291$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.84 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 62c | 1,258$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 1,223$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 77c | 1,205$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.24 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…859ebacked No | 26c | 1,078$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 35c | 1,054$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.75 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed No | 12c | 1,043$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…98f7backed No | 7c | 1,029$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 47c | 976$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.84 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 27c | 965.37$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Yes | 53c | 942.2$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…1052backed No | 28c | 885.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 20c | 861.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bc…c11abacked No | 14c | 849.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 12c | 828.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…9c11backed No | 43c | 783.31$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 37c | 722$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.16 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…0ea2backed Yes | 65c | 718.09$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked No | 8c | 717.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 7c | 709.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 49c | 699.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…40efbacked No | 15c | 695.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 67c | 684.72$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.96 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 11c | 634.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d52…e8c9backed No | 2c | 629.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…8001backed No | 14c | 627.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…f52abacked No | 47c | 604.38$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 25c | 600$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…76bbbacked No | 12c | 585$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…f62bbacked Yes | 43c | 563$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked No | 19c | 549.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed No | 19c | 543.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 16c | 495.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed No | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…9972backed No | 35c | 438.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9b3dbacked No | 62c | 424.88$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 10c | 416$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…a210backed No | 7c | 403.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 17c | 380$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…8133backed No | 10c | 377.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 55c | 372$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1763backed No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…de70backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed No | 20c | 297.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…0229backed No | 12c | 293.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?this page
- Will Israel not strike Yemen between September 8-15 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.