Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe803479873077dc26a42bcb2ee3f146c6e4a2846861ce66bfa40a080b8ea1adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed Yes | 0c | 29,051$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…914abacked Yes | 1c | 22,398$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5498…903ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,637$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 1c | 5,433$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,076$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…e374backed Yes | 0c | 4,653$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,643$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,363$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,657$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…f425backed Yes | 1c | 3,472$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53af…629fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,833$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,703$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…fa85backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 4c | 999.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 724.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…9d46backed Yes | 3c | 706.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked Yes | 4c | 608.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 4c | 551.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 4c | 487$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 6c | 447.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 8c | 296$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 8c | 270.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 7c | 221.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 11c | 202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 13c | 154.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…9016backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 95.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET?this page
- Will Israel not strike Yemen between September 8-15 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.