Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ef655be3e52492a672252104ef358f7e8c8ce82f50499ce42036ef5c7fdb9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 36c | 13,610$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,710.4 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked No | 64c | 11,035$7,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 40c | 9,800$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,892.43 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 64c | 4,628$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.03 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,056$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,036$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 41c | 2,544$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.65 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 8c | 2,504$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 6c | 2,189$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 3c | 2,065$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…2b5bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,738$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,661$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 36c | 1,400$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 37c | 1,344$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 10c | 965$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 899.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 10c | 784.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 31c | 777.29$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.29 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 36c | 728.46$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.8 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…44f6backed No | 68c | 613.66$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 66c | 589.05$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 76c | 549.99$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 12c | 494$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 80c | 485$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…9c11backed No | 43c | 484.47$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 30c | 460$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.7 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 70c | 400$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 33c | 400$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 23c | 258.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 33c | 258.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 35c | 256.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 66c | 253.86$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 7c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…1516backed No | 49c | 205.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…f52abacked No | 79c | 188.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…1318backed No | 73c | 109.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 28c | 84.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 78.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 70.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 35c | 60.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 28c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…5c78backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 80c | 27.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…8133backed No | 62c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…16f8backed No | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?this page
- Will Israel not strike Yemen between September 8-15 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.