World Politics · resolved market
North Korea missile test by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0237d68ba8e36bea6fc6fc6835c88d46544da04009913ce171cec0cc6a8ea61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 21c | 9,010$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 8,362$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.82 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 7,561$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.61 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 7,554$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.52 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,601$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.63 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 43c | 6,121$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 35c | 5,767$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked No | 71c | 5,601$3,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.41 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 35c | 5,506$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.63 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 16c | 5,128$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 14c | 4,905$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 16c | 4,170$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 26c | 3,724$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 3,300$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,295$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.52 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 14c | 2,838$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.27 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 2,833$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,818$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 17c | 1,641$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 14c | 1,622$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b294backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 1,492$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.71 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 25c | 1,428$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 15c | 1,370$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,273$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 13c | 1,069$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,060$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 5c | 1,034$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 19c | 933$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 21c | 921.41$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 21c | 699$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 20c | 650.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 619.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 11c | 596$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 9c | 554.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 28c | 500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 8c | 499.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 14c | 458.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 24c | 423$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +685%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 22c | 381.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 15c | 362.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 360.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 314.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 281.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 19c | 277.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 18c | 270$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 57c | 243.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 26c | 240.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 13c | 230.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 11c | 227.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…253bbacked Yes | 25c | 218.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 21c | 206.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…7f0fbacked No | 75c | 206$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked No | 79c | 200.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…cccbbacked No | 67c | 198.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 175.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 21c | 173.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 40c | 162.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 31c | 155.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed Yes | 38c | 132.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…1e34backed No | 76c | 131.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 25c | 127.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 10c | 121.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 114$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…f52abacked No | 77c | 104.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 17c | 104.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ee…5ea5backed Yes | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 71.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 68c | 69.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…0a3ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…6e72backed Yes | 34c | 59.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 24c | 50.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 25c | 46.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…5eebbacked No | 53c | 29.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked No | 77c | 29.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.