TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$542,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$466,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $542,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes19c46,981$8,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,139.6618425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…2a75backed No2c19,362$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.9580%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No70c12,941$9,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,052.265832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes74c12,157$9,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.9941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes15c11,147$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,457.998231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes21c8,936$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,055.5419236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No73c8,099$5,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,878.9199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No66c7,948$5,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,278.613852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes27c7,367$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,405.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes25c6,087$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,537.1811428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No4c5,811$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.156546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c4,761$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.411,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No12c4,407$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2610950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x111b…bad9backed No12c4,300$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.931020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No74c4,092$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.092646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No19c3,760$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes5c3,584$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,408.2737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes16c3,555$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No14c3,462$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.662657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes14c3,340$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.8135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes7c3,156$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.38728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+115.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes9c3,152$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.9612910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes6c3,089$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.7410749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes24c3,004$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.072222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No66c2,905$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.733253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed No72c2,772$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No73c2,649$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.031050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No76c2,600$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.9910055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes12c2,500$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.9218725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0afc…e1e4backed No79c2,500$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No46c2,473$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.878536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No47c2,458$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.5617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes19c2,438$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.9310630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No3c2,349$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.081833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No29c2,114$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.9511538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No6c2,000$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5532626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No13c1,832$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.994942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x86e9…fa1dbacked Yes28c1,776$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No62c1,746$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.214729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ee…df72backed Yes22c1,660$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.65650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed Yes38c1,551$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes13c1,500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3052147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a6…762ebacked No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes47c1,500$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7913467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes40c1,334$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.812245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed Yes15c1,321$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No69c1,240$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.9917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes30c1,200$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.352931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a08…882dbacked Yes27c1,167$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes34c1,152$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No3c1,127$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.355642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes13c1,105$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.65844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54af…a9efbacked Yes78c1,080$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591f…5610backed Yes8c1,073$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.41560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+231.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x656a…be53backed Yes33c1,053$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Yes27c1,023$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes19c1,000$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81010211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No79c1,000$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7902564%16 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5782…a16abacked No26c945.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502055%11 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9079…6e00backed Yes11c909.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+228.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f9…833abacked Yes11c909.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes46c890$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.446459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No63c883.95$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.8919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No6c819.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8710127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No55c811.63$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.6517850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf60e…6aefbacked Yes9c810.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.77450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+245.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed No5c806.61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.567723.4%18 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed No2c750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.376235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed No80c725.12$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ce…5975backed Yes14c714$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.04540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+84.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c709.1$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.221,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes30c705.67$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.22544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f8…ab37backed Yes14c700$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6022100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick38cpaid+339.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes17c695.08$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.6928320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd6…5ddabacked Yes8c664.61$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.891361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick32cpaid+153.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c637.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.373989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes10c628.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.651855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes45c626.01$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.017672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes14c605.42$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.472650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No48c586.64$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.710834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eff…e593backed No77c576.62$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44430%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked No68c572.45$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.542147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No79c550$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.751428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-46.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes4c548.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.413537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf950…81d1backed No12c548.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes14c523.4$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.733313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb2…69e5backed Yes13c507.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes15c500$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42514742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed No80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3752250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes13c500$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4353023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+72.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes10c499.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.993026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed No58c498$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.841735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4d…ffb0backed Yes10c494.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+919.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd7…46bbbacked No60c481.51$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7731…c898backed No63c476.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No58c469.18$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.125650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…fd57backed Yes11c454.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes9c444$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.049347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.