Us Politics · resolved market
US government shutdown in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8dc35e690ede1455c476595bc9bddd5c354ff86c8455a2d530ad94673740d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,512,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,468,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,512,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,653 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ff…6e4fbacked Yes | 38c | 103,518$39,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,181.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48e…2c02backed No | 62c | 103,518$64,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,181.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…e224backed No | 46c | 95,231$43,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,806.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…ce7cbacked Yes | 54c | 95,231$51,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,806.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…a21ebacked No | 3c | 91,537$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…0b8cbacked Yes | 57c | 77,198$44,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,195.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…807ebacked No | 43c | 77,198$33,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,195.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 70,812$19,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,607.2 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…f347backed No | 28c | 66,500$18,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,794.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 72c | 62,733$45,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,695.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed No | 18c | 60,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked No | 1c | 59,400$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 53c | 58,793$30,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,901.73 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 58c | 56,627$32,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,837.56 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7388…2320backed No | 20c | 53,553$10,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,954.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570f…39fbbacked No | 0c | 51,952$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 79c | 48,933$38,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,107.23 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 77c | 45,392$34,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,577.41 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 69c | 43,577$30,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,321.17 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 37c | 40,380$14,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,412.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 60c | 32,687$19,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,485.42 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 1c | 31,401$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.01 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed Yes | 50c | 26,442$13,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,225.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 63c | 26,126$16,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,691.33 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 25,140$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.51 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 61c | 22,718$13,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,944.56 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 34c | 21,654$7,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,388.42 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…b753backed No | 5c | 21,413$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 17c | 19,000$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,680 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 78c | 17,592$13,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.85 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 36c | 16,215$5,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,774.73 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 41c | 15,915$6,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,466.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 4c | 15,113$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.73 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 68c | 13,405$9,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,115.6 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 74c | 12,944$9,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.46 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked No | 54c | 12,626$6,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,864.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 30c | 12,392$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,621.57 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked No | 54c | 12,122$6,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,502.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…0d5fbacked No | 19c | 11,999$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 65c | 11,994$7,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 75c | 11,615$8,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.51 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 78c | 11,573$9,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.24 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 30c | 10,393$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,302.91 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 73c | 10,110$7,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.83 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed No | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…2532backed Yes | 36c | 9,970$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,409.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…919fbacked No | 28c | 9,810$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 69c | 9,197$6,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,374.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…93c6backed Yes | 52c | 9,136$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,425.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed No | 25c | 9,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked No | 24c | 8,725$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 67c | 8,587$5,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,794.52 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked No | 20c | 8,553$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 32c | 8,204$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.08 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…7724backed No | 37c | 8,011$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…74ffbacked Yes | 67c | 8,006$5,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf843…0baebacked No | 39c | 7,675$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…1a2dbacked No | 20c | 7,485$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 59c | 7,196$4,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 59c | 7,109$4,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.03 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 7,089$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked Yes | 69c | 7,000$4,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 16c | 6,514$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.36 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked Yes | 73c | 6,438$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +320.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…e03abacked No | 17c | 6,019$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 21c | 5,961$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.81 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8de3backed Yes | 68c | 5,921$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Yes | 76c | 5,913$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…46efbacked No | 17c | 5,876$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 30c | 5,834$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.08 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…3c0dbacked No | 31c | 5,826$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 34c | 5,500$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.98 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 75c | 5,427$4,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.77 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 66c | 5,255$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…eb20backed Yes | 73c | 5,139$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…548ebacked No | 12c | 5,110$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked No | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 33c | 4,988$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.13 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 16c | 4,879$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.77 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed No | 2c | 4,852$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 60c | 4,785$2,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.87 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…c749backed No | 70c | 4,784$3,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,362.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 63c | 4,596$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.12 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked No | 52c | 4,546$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…1d43backed Yes | 75c | 4,500$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 4,495$3,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.85 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 67c | 4,395$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.14 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…cdc1backed No | 23c | 4,348$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3278…2aaebacked No | 45c | 4,324$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 56c | 4,280$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3af…9764backed No | 1c | 4,172$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed No | 20c | 4,108$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 25c | 4,064$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.95 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 36c | 4,037$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed No | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 6c | 4,000$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked No | 27c | 3,948$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 37c | 3,811$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.34 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.