Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d85d8c2d389973cdd943ad1c183d554ea7722b7ce938bfef2665f7c93c292a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 44c | 21,734$9,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,126.19 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 49c | 15,717$7,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,079.98 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…eaa6backed No | 21c | 13,053$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…831cbacked No | 55c | 9,050$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 68c | 6,095$4,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.14 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…3545backed No | 64c | 5,619$3,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,609 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 24c | 4,540$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.58 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 69c | 3,448$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.93 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 59c | 2,315$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.68 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 29c | 2,241$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.18 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…0b58backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…bb53backed No | 25c | 1,209$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked No | 45c | 796.39$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…654cbacked No | 67c | 700$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 54c | 550$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…ea30backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 41c | 341.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.13 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…2556backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…2d50backed No | 52c | 285.26$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5f…8b16backed Yes | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…0975backed No | 48c | 186.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…025fbacked Yes | 78c | 160.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 42c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…65fabacked Yes | 69c | 142.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed Yes | 38c | 113.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 54c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 53c | 72.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…a3aebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…35ddbacked No | 49c | 51.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d49…e7bbbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b277backed No | 25c | 47.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed No | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…d193backed No | 60c | 43.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…c1c4backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…bc72backed Yes | 56c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…cc97backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…755cbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…97e2backed No | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a91…3f81backed Yes | 46c | 28.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed Yes | 54c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…bf23backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…781ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…8618backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…2d12backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 September 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,300 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.