Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34afa9a800d92048a42f8a7f66ede9ca5125f3831c965ca17b730ac514eb2910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 52c | 7,698$3,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,989.67 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 51c | 4,131$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.39 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…0b58backed No | 33c | 3,900$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,004$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 45c | 2,848$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.25 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 56c | 2,514$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.8 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 39c | 1,778$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 78c | 1,750$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.25 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e671backed Yes | 47c | 1,404$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…4956backed Yes | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…4c27backed No | 47c | 700$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5f…8b16backed Yes | 52c | 678.82$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…77b5backed Yes | 18c | 241.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…a6a5backed No | 42c | 239.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…8891backed No | 53c | 235.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Yes | 55c | 164.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…0975backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…a9d6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…1b56backed No | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed No | 60c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…e912backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…2d12backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,300 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.