Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea13cb4ad94711ab8d71bb79d5a697398df2cd51e4e15bbfd934a60b8c5b785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 80c | 9,723$7,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.62 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 19c | 7,752$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.12 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 23c | 1,618$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.18 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 22c | 1,168$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.36 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 17c | 597.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…1639backed Yes | 14c | 498.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked No | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 72c | 174.92$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…1080backed No | 77c | 112$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…3b93backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…5579backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,300 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.