Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f96ebfa9558dd76ead962605259f3ac601d2ce360ec4e4d1ad37045ab83b2b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 24c | 15,067$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.98 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…b4d6backed Yes | 7c | 4,536$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 64c | 3,597$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.82 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 67c | 3,292$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.03 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 32c | 1,111$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.74 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…9fe2backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 68c | 811.57$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 512.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…b0f0backed Yes | 31c | 147.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed No | 60c | 85.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…7664backed Yes | 32c | 71.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed Yes | 34c | 38.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…17e4backed No | 71c | 35.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…aa6ebacked No | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…29dfbacked No | 70c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…5579backed No | 76c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 September 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,300 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.