TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$720,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$757,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $720,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes0c50,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes34c37,869$12,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,857.664242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37b4…522dbacked Yes28c31,312$8,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,767.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No77c13,309$10,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0735662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No76c13,000$9,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,073.631573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No73c12,473$9,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,319.7922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes1c12,433$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.336417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes5c9,638$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes31c9,072$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.441428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x677f…c336backed Yes4c8,753$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf65backed Yes3c8,376$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No73c7,918$5,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.184763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b1…775fbacked No77c7,836$5,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8371346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,689$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.231,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes4c7,017$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.041198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes23c6,385$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.2115023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes18c6,225$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.7358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes8c5,855$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.951717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked No74c5,821$4,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.8513561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes47c5,696$2,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.453923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes3c5,615$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1466723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes23c5,500$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes8c5,405$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.443312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes5c5,300$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.99375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes45c5,277$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.84812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes9c5,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.897810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes45c4,433$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d1e…08f2backed Yes10c4,402$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bbb…16abbacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1683…1010backed Yes49c3,920$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked No78c3,740$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.7711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes4c3,700$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.72910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe06a…a476backed Yes1c3,488$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a9…860cbacked Yes9c3,194$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked Yes0c3,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes2c2,881$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes2c2,784$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.454517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No78c2,718$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.466053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No78c2,585$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.6155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No76c2,500$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.2113863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a8…a9d3backed Yes5c2,159$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes2c2,068$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes5c2,048$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.491533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes3c2,041$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5919439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6434…535ebacked Yes0c2,033$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374d…9f76backed Yes9c1,738$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1216…2ed7backed No80c1,647$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes6c1,631$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.426425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43a5…55e9backed Yes31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde75…8596backed Yes2c1,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.681618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6f…25f8backed Yes37c1,362$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9d…8c9ebacked Yes35c1,251$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No64c1,234$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.249913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes6c1,195$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.228116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc496…559ebacked No80c1,193$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes1c1,121$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.661450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+63.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09db…c089backed Yes7c1,110$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes4c1,100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.52313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No72c1,045$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.051668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa62d…224fbacked Yes5c1,041$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes3c1,029$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2807767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf8e…0f12backed Yes33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes5c997.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.412412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b50…77a2backed Yes5c839.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.491414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes35c800$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2805156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc71…eb87backed No69c792.23$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee1…7029backed Yes49c779.77$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x760a…7409backed Yes3c761.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2457652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x295d…accebacked Yes7c679.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No67c635.11$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.3722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53fe…067dbacked Yes2c590.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a90…f319backed Yes19c589.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.61926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+104%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes3c588.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No63c580$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.14273.8%31 W · 11 L+13.6wins+0.32per pick41cpaid+109.3%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6e…c9dbbacked Yes20c540$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked Yes5c528.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes25c512.6$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63fb…4367backed No72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x221d…5cebbacked Yes8c499.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes31c461.08$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.787540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes11c459.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.26825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked No59c426.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.593250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes5c422.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5576…622fbacked Yes2c420$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes9c387.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.077642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x199b…62eabacked No79c380$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes35c350$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fd…fd7cbacked Yes25c344$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f27…b9e2backed Yes3c342.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2805…70afbacked Yes5c338.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8d…d536backed Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.