Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7adb7bf8979e7129649d9896cc5d5ec9c50c2a2cedd0d820d69c7567fed33efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $415,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $448,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 8c | 60,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,699.98 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 7c | 40,658$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.28 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 3c | 9,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d750backed Yes | 2c | 8,100$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,100$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 7c | 7,511$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.99 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…86a2backed Yes | 7c | 7,500$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,238$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Yes | 4c | 3,435$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 3,239$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…2fe1backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5914…88fcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed Yes | 2c | 1,249$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,141$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…6cf8backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…e8bebacked Yes | 7c | 967.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 8c | 917.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 1c | 899.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 3c | 850.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…5615backed Yes | 7c | 807.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…c38dbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 6c | 707.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 3c | 650$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 614.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…d536backed Yes | 2c | 478.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 388$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 6c | 341.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 8c | 243$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 7c | 216.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…b901backed Yes | 8c | 162.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…09b1backed Yes | 7c | 138.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.