TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$271,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed No19c37,231$7,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,123.5222216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No17c11,667$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175b…93aebacked Yes77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3001050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked No9c9,513$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No12c8,518$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.4858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed No19c7,750$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.727810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No16c6,131$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.9887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No11c5,200$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5635639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No19c4,888$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.0563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked No19c4,766$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.2511316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No7c3,767$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No30c3,628$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.588038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcde8…018ebacked No25c3,600$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked No13c2,989$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.614736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No22c2,823$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.6555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked No12c2,770$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7513561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed No27c2,295$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.925955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No11c2,231$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8711554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No20c2,000$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.787652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed No12c1,904$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,846$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.341,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…823cbacked No26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x967c…5d9fbacked No23c1,284$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001010%1 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick44cpaid-68.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No30c1,221$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.374047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No20c1,200$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.55156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked No20c1,200$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.55554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No20c1,200$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.64845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821c…ffc7backed No20c1,200$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.63948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b3…942cbacked No13c1,154$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No5c1,128$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3812025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25b8…87fbbacked Yes80c1,103$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.69560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No20c1,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8915754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x939e…448cbacked Yes78c923.17$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No15c810$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.611540%6 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f8…8d75backed No22c765.44$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No23c760$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.615023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c727.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e55…87f8backed Yes79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No20c541.24$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x105e…b066backed No8c525$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d1…8484backed No25c493.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed No10c450$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked No8c449.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9830531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab81…5ecdbacked Yes77c400$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd031…b594backed No27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes70c333$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.94555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x220a…1795backed No13c283.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.912138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes77c230.73$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac06…e808backed No11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9682…ff2abacked Yes78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.823036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked No16c186.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.477540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf65e…3850backed No22c181.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No17c162.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273531.4%11 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No20c154.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed No22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc728…9c2dbacked Yes70c142.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.611764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x894c…246abacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86cf…d8a5backed No25c121.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x659a…60ebbacked No9c112.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb71c…dd68backed No38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6edc…6975backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62d…9dedbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13bc…b26dbacked No16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152161.9%13 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4872…da4fbacked No24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc916…f94cbacked No22c82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf13…685cbacked Yes80c62.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…3172backed No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c5…79e0backed Yes78c46.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f1…4365backed Yes80c43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…8a13backed Yes80c40.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c76…c033backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf725…6dccbacked Yes80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa309…af87backed Yes78c34.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…32a3backed Yes80c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa75…8e63backed Yes79c32.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe187…b1b5backed Yes80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a47…aa53backed Yes71c27.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.094415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8435…fca7backed Yes78c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21030%3 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3bf5…7a6abacked Yes67c15.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.753560%21 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xedaa…fadebacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…27a6backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.