TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$700,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$721,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $700,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes11c50,805$5,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,543.112025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes19c23,667$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,426.2322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes13c23,007$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.2635123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f8…8d75backed Yes10c22,767$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ae…15e0backed Yes25c20,221$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes9c14,124$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.8187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes10c13,414$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.7618425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed No77c12,738$9,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes14c12,183$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.044736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes21c12,154$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.8158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes10c11,353$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.33312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes21c10,569$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.5811316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No70c9,233$6,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,798.682085%17 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c9,168$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.211,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No45c8,820$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8511361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes10c7,695$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.912824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x905d…ada9backed Yes0c7,224$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea5…10a8backed Yes12c6,689$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes24c6,240$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.2155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes27c6,116$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.0425824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes57c5,931$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3864047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes56c5,099$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.73923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No46c4,690$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.89913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes55c4,390$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf65backed Yes6c4,336$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c3,888$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No49c3,603$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.4934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes8c3,600$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes4c3,410$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.844517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No71c3,259$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.3524654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No60c3,042$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.123351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes9c2,500$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.52347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes12c2,439$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.414337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374d…9f76backed Yes11c2,345$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec1…ddfebacked Yes48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10dd…d892backed Yes16c2,021$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes14c2,015$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.518116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb70…7a87backed Yes12c1,961$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No67c1,904$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.047652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes14c1,841$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6415023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes9c1,500$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.76425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x214c…eb00backed No79c1,350$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2771560%9 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…ce4ebacked Yes10c1,200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ea…4815backed Yes17c1,200$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes10c1,131$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.791198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked Yes9c1,087$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc493…b50ebacked Yes9c1,071$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes5c1,050$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick19cpaid+168.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No69c1,000$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.715156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f23…3ff3backed Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1730…9199backed Yes50c998$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe910…0ecdbacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x821c…ffc7backed No70c900$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2703948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde75…8596backed Yes5c815.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.751618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes5c786$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.445617.9%10 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes20c777$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.297642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cf6…9b22backed Yes58c691.21$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes10c688.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.932412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes52c678.6$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.095955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5914…88fcbacked Yes15c662.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-75.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x967c…5d9fbacked Yes67c601.09$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001010%1 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick44cpaid-68.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No74c600$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1544845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220a…1795backed Yes20c588.17$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.022138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa29…879dbacked Yes44c568.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2457140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6201…cd96backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed No48c499.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa62d…224fbacked Yes11c471.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked No74c468.57$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.675554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes46c385.17$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No74c380.26$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.315754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No63c360$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.857357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd031…b594backed Yes56c357.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No65c348$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8411658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9c…a7abbacked Yes14c347$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d29…414dbacked Yes45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-78.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc658…29a2backed Yes6c321.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes13c305.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes16c301.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.542339.1%9 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+155.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc6d1…e235backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed No68c293.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.05366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked No66c291.12$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7513561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes52c289.58$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.582821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5523…27b1backed Yes5c288.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x136d…e6f7backed Yes8c259.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8d…d536backed Yes10c257.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc728…9c2dbacked No46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06c0…5615backed Yes9c214.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.29110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Yes15c202.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-72.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb030…9afdbacked No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No54c200$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x653a…ce1ebacked Yes50c199$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes6c186.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-84.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb9…807cbacked No61c184.92$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.122450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.