Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0adf14ec38b72e3f46e70c5d42efed46d7c0601289e22759ba94ddc086b791

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,075,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,776,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,075,061 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes	0c	164,066$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.13	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes	1c	58,286$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$834.35	99	13.1%13 W · 86 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7c…d582backed Yes	2c	40,795$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.32	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes	0c	35,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	136	0%0 W · 136 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…3a22backed Yes	0c	22,211$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82c8…832abacked Yes	2c	21,408$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x031f…4ac2backed Yes	1c	17,971$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes	0c	17,185$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.97	234	11.1%26 W · 208 L	+9.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes	1c	17,097$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.07	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c9…a2efbacked Yes	0c	16,658$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	1c	16,303$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes	0c	15,500$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	64	25%16 W · 48 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd2…0261backed Yes	1c	15,444$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Yes	1c	15,117$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes	0c	13,492$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.11	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes	2c	11,800$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.8	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes	2c	11,124$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes	2c	11,046$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e57…84a5backed Yes	1c	11,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c6c…f842backed Yes	2c	10,663$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.28	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec19…a9eabacked Yes	2c	9,398$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7b…55bebacked Yes	2c	9,021$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.32	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes	2c	8,385$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.78	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x457d…0f36backed Yes	0c	8,040$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-90.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30e7…d258backed Yes	2c	8,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a2f…1f59backed Yes	2c	7,735$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.03	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a7…6528backed Yes	1c	7,158$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.9	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2751…1678backed Yes	2c	6,660$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes	1c	6,050$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.55	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb472…9436backed Yes	2c	5,948$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes	1c	5,705$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.44	113	16.8%19 W · 94 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…700dbacked Yes	0c	5,490$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ee…8575backed Yes	2c	5,132$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes	2c	4,287$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.27	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	1c	4,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe402…76c9backed Yes	1c	3,870$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcb…e811backed Yes	1c	3,800$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…35d9backed Yes	0c	3,750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf712…4bd0backed Yes	0c	3,702$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes	2c	3,589$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	49	2%1 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6434…535ebacked Yes	0c	3,580$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf252…8208backed Yes	1c	3,575$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes	2c	3,509$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe918…dd23backed Yes	1c	3,495$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed4…d5febacked Yes	2c	3,438$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc89c…37e7backed Yes	1c	3,320$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee33…b67ebacked Yes	0c	3,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f6…86a2backed Yes	2c	3,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Yes	2c	2,941$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf6f…1002backed Yes	1c	2,432$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4609…4fdcbacked Yes	2c	2,361$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes	1c	2,202$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,086$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.98	1,844	4.4%81 W · 1,763 L	-13.1wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fe…25e2backed Yes	2c	2,029$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes	2c	2,021$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6567…9088backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	2c	1,862$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	348	48.6%169 W · 179 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes	2c	1,760$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	116	5.2%6 W · 110 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8115…3622backed Yes	2c	1,594$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6135…c166backed Yes	1c	1,527$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	1c	1,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	1c	1,431$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x40d5…e937backed Yes	1c	1,416$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	1c	1,404$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	63	11.1%7 W · 56 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	4cpaid	+519.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab13…f605backed Yes	1c	1,348$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…a724backed Yes	2c	1,250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes	1c	1,178$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	103	0%0 W · 103 L	-7.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c5…1829backed Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc99c…f913backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3a…5921backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e5…1ab1backed Yes	1c	950$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5219…38f5backed Yes	1c	880$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Yes	1c	834.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2030…6bb0backed Yes	2c	833.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e1f…9231backed Yes	2c	798.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e4…e73dbacked Yes	2c	789.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0b…b9fabacked Yes	1c	751.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa050…3e54backed Yes	2c	750$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39cd…7de1backed Yes	1c	715$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd66…13a1backed Yes	1c	686.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-83.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa798…c17abacked Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa643…317ebacked Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes	2c	526.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	69	5.8%4 W · 65 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b1…8f2dbacked Yes	2c	466.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?this page
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $112K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $116K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event