TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,286,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,208,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,286,608 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes10c65,000$6,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,302.93319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes9c61,647$5,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,482.0211316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes6c42,851$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes10c30,470$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.6922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes9c29,514$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,588.434736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe285…f9a4backed Yes2c25,393$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c19,998$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes10c17,839$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.15590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes11c15,819$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.215023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes2c15,743$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes7c14,522$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes9c14,509$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.5725824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes0c13,998$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes8c13,982$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10114337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes11c12,144$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.78130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf33…3727backed Yes9c11,799$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d5…4346backed Yes12c11,460$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Yes0c11,147$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes8c11,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes8c10,880$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.58375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9007810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d5…72ffbacked Yes12c8,842$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.751618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes8c8,117$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.2363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes7c8,065$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.68330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes1c7,984$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.651024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…2625backed Yes6c7,893$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb23a…9a75backed Yes7c7,644$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c74…c63ebacked Yes8c7,530$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c7,500$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.56425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes2c7,398$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.851333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6519…b8cfbacked Yes11c6,987$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed Yes11c6,551$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.06742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Yes9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0926…51dabacked Yes9c5,264$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.75119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes9c5,200$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.7213561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb791…ab57backed Yes1c5,095$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6434…535ebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,903$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.321,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86d…a948backed Yes8c4,851$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2161…f852backed Yes10c4,805$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe393…7158backed Yes4c4,684$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c6c…f842backed Yes7c4,563$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes11c4,174$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.12432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes6c3,999$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.94633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes6c3,961$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes11c3,899$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes3c3,773$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes12c3,670$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.782832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd331…f464backed Yes14c3,571$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933b…ed9abacked Yes1c3,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd782…9285backed Yes1c3,102$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes10c2,953$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.852821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes8c2,906$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes11c2,839$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes13c2,389$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa015…80bbbacked Yes9c2,345$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes5c2,149$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.957219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb545…6699backed Yes7c2,143$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c2,054$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.359824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89d1…ae28backed Yes8c2,006$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes11c2,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1284…bbcdbacked Yes2c1,975$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes10c1,969$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f2…9c15backed Yes13c1,800$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Yes10c1,564$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6587…35d9backed Yes1c1,558$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d80…ef24backed Yes8c1,550$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes9c1,508$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f42…619abacked Yes8c1,507$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes11c1,455$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc79…fa6bbacked Yes11c1,437$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x627b…7d19backed Yes15c1,334$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c7…fa37backed Yes9c1,333$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…45a9backed Yes13c1,300$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16970%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x457d…0f36backed Yes2c1,291$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-90.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b6e…c9dbbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes2c1,133$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-78.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-85.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6743…288ebacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aaa…8212backed Yes1c1,062$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes7c1,027$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.816311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47ea…7fc0backed Yes9c1,023$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a47…6788backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe540…7106backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec19…a9eabacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70160%0 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes6c983.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.488116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ee5…7bf0backed Yes9c954.46$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.213342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc459…0d59backed Yes8c916.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes8c900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes7c825.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.352412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes12c825$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes13c781.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes7c766.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.67478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.